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Climate Risk Index, ESGreen Platform

IRC-ESGreen: climate intelligence to protect portfolios, clients and results

The IRC-ESGreen (Climate Risk Index) measures physical climate risk by land parcel, contract and portfolio, converts the exposure into reais and indicates an action for each operation.

  • Risk by operation
  • Exposure in reais
  • Earlier decisions
Scale from 0 to 100: the higher, the greater the risk. Updated daily.
  1. 0–25 Very low
  2. 26–40 Low
  3. 41–60 Medium
  4. 61–75 High
  5. 76–100 Critical
Request an IRC-ESGreen demo Watch the video (70 s)

Explore the interactive demo

The video loads from YouTube only when you click.

Alert issued

12 daysA −1.6 °C frost forecast for July 14 in Caxias do Sul, identified 12 days in advance.

Event
Frost
Forecast for
Lead time
12 days
Location
Caxias do Sul/RS

Rural credit portfolio of a credit cooperative in Southern Brazil.

Illustrative data: fictitious portfolio, does not represent real clients

See the IRC-ESGreen on a fictitious portfolio

40 fictitious land parcels in Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul. Choose the horizon and see how the index, the exposure in reais and the suggested action change.

Demo run DEMO-2026-09-30-A, fictitious data, issued on

Forecast horizon

Window projected from the date of the run.

Map of Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul with 40 fictitious land parcels colored by IRC band.

IRC band: the higher, the greater the risk

  1. Very low 0–25
  2. Low 26–40
  3. Medium 41–60
  4. High 61–75
  5. Critical 76–100

Each dot is a fictitious land parcel. Press Tab to enter the map and use the arrow keys to move through the land parcels, from the most critical to the least critical.

Horizon: 30 days

  • Portfolio average IRC

    57 / 100

    the higher, the greater the risk

  • Climate exposure

    R$8.29M

    estimated value at risk over the horizon

  • Contracts in the High or Critical band

    15 of 40 (38%)

    at least one land parcel with an IRC above 60

  • Predominant event

    frost

    most frequent among exposed land parcels

The 5 most critical contracts in this horizon

Fictitious contracts ranked by IRC for the horizon of 30 days
#ContractMunicipality/StateCropForecast eventIRCBandExposureSuggested action
1 Fictitious contract 0020 G-020Videira/SC, grapes Videira/SC grapes frost 94 Critical R$109K block
2 Fictitious contract 0032 G-032Caxias do Sul/RS, grapes Caxias do Sul/RS grapes frost 87 Critical R$337K provision
3 Fictitious contract 0010 G-010Castro/PR, beans Castro/PR beans frost 84 Critical R$190K provision
4 Fictitious contract 0023 G-023Canoinhas/SC, beans Canoinhas/SC beans frost 83 Critical R$484K provision
5 Fictitious contract 0019 G-019Campos Novos/SC, soybean Campos Novos/SC soybean frost 81 Critical R$221K provision

Ranked by IRC over the selected horizon. Ties are ranked by exposure in reais.

The interactive demo needs JavaScript for the map and the tabs. The table below shows the same fictitious portfolio for the horizon of 30 days.

View the table of the 40 land parcels
The 40 fictitious land parcels for the horizon of 30 days
Land parcelMunicipality/StateCropStageIRCBandForecast eventExposureSuggested action
G-001Cascavel/PRsoybeandevelopment33Lowwater deficitR$204Krequire insurance
G-002Toledo/PRcorndevelopment44Mediumwater deficitR$95Kreview limit
G-003Palotina/PRsoybeandevelopment47Mediumwater deficitR$213Kreview limit
G-004Umuarama/PRcorndevelopment44Mediumwater deficitR$157Kreview limit
G-005Campo Mourão/PRsoybeandevelopment40Lowextreme temperatureR$95Krequire insurance
G-006Maringá/PRsoybeandevelopment42Mediumextreme temperatureR$152Kreview limit
G-007Londrina/PRwheatflowering51Mediumextreme temperatureR$79Kreview limit
G-008Cornélio Procópio/PRcorndevelopment52Mediumwater deficitR$200Kreview limit
G-009Ponta Grossa/PRsoybeandevelopment75HighfrostR$412Kstrengthen collateral
G-010Castro/PRbeansplanting84CriticalfrostR$190Kprovision
G-011Tibagi/PRwheatflowering70HighfrostR$462Kstrengthen collateral
G-012Guarapuava/PRwheatflowering74HighfrostR$368Kstrengthen collateral
G-013Pato Branco/PRcorndevelopment72HighfrostR$357Kstrengthen collateral
G-014Francisco Beltrão/PRbeansplanting72HighfrostR$240Kstrengthen collateral
G-015Chapecó/SCcorndevelopment42Mediumwater deficitR$81Kreview limit
G-016Xanxerê/SCsoybeandevelopment47Mediumwater deficitR$174Kreview limit
G-017São Miguel do Oeste/SCcorndevelopment39Lowwater deficitR$125Krequire insurance
G-018Concórdia/SCcorndevelopment32Lowwater deficitR$45Krequire insurance
G-019Campos Novos/SCsoybeandevelopment81CriticalfrostR$221Kprovision
G-020Videira/SCgrapesflowering94CriticalfrostR$109Kblock
G-021Curitibanos/SCbeansplanting67HighfrostR$288Kstrengthen collateral
G-022Lages/SCcorndevelopment57MediumfrostR$220Kreview limit
G-023Canoinhas/SCbeansplanting83CriticalfrostR$484Kprovision
G-024Turvo/SCirrigated ricedevelopment62Highextreme rainfallR$865Kstrengthen collateral
G-025Passo Fundo/RSsoybeandevelopment55MediumfrostR$267Kreview limit
G-026Carazinho/RSwheatflowering54MediumfrostR$92Kreview limit
G-027Cruz Alta/RSsoybeandevelopment46Mediumextreme rainfallR$161Kreview limit
G-028Ijuí/RSsoybeandevelopment54Mediumextreme rainfallR$131Kreview limit
G-029Santo Ângelo/RSwheatflowering64Highextreme rainfallR$310Kstrengthen collateral
G-030Santa Rosa/RSsoybeandevelopment49Mediumextreme rainfallR$219Kreview limit
G-031Vacaria/RScorndevelopment67HighfrostR$265Kstrengthen collateral
G-032Caxias do Sul/RSgrapesflowering87CriticalfrostR$337Kprovision
G-033Bento Gonçalves/RSgrapesflowering79CriticalfrostR$77Kprovision
G-034Santa Maria/RSsoybeandevelopment45Mediumextreme rainfallR$100Kreview limit
G-035Cachoeira do Sul/RSirrigated ricedevelopment50Mediumextreme rainfallR$106Kreview limit
G-036Camaquã/RSirrigated ricedevelopment51Mediumextreme rainfallR$78Kreview limit
G-037Pelotas/RSirrigated ricedevelopment54Mediumextreme rainfallR$238Kreview limit
G-038Bagé/RSsoybeandevelopment36Lowwater deficitR$35Krequire insurance
G-039Alegrete/RSirrigated ricedevelopment40Lowno relevant eventR$0monitor
G-040Uruguaiana/RSirrigated ricedevelopment44Mediumwater deficitR$44Kreview limit
How these counts are made

In this demo, a land parcel enters the risk count when its IRC for the selected horizon falls in the High (61–75) or Critical (76–100) band. A contract is counted once, by its most exposed land parcel. Climate exposure adds up the estimated value at risk of each contract over the horizon. All names, values and locations are fictitious.

Want to see the IRC-ESGreen on your portfolio?

Request a demo with your portfolio

In the demo with your institution's data, we start from a portfolio or a sample of operations you define.

The question

Which operations in your portfolio could generate losses in the next 90 days?

Your institution measures credit, market and operational risk. But can it anticipate the climate impact by contract?

An objective view of risk before it reaches the bottom line

  1. Portfolio or sample of operations
  2. Climate risk by land parcel
  3. Most exposed contracts
  4. Financial value at risk
  5. Suggested action

The analyst does not need to interpret a climate model. They get risk, value and visibility.

From harvest to balance sheet

The event happens in the field. The impact shows up on the balance sheet.

  1. Climate event
  2. Production loss
  3. Lower repayment capacity
  4. Default or renegotiation
  5. Provisions, capital and earnings

The problem isn't just that the climate is changing. It's the loss reaching the portfolio without warning.

Differentiator

From the portfolio's rearview mirror to its windshield

Rearview mirror and windshield

Historical, municipal reading (rearview mirror) compared with the forward-looking reading by coordinate (windshield)
Rearview mirrorWindshield
Historical averageForecast from 7 to 90 days
Municipal viewAnalysis by coordinate
Explains past eventsIdentification of land parcels and contracts
Little connection with current contractsFinancial exposure and preventive action

What changes in portfolio management

Portfolio management before and with the IRC-ESGreen
Before the IRC-ESGreenWith the IRC-ESGreen
Historical, aggregated viewForecast from 7 to 90 days
Reaction after the eventRisk by land parcel and operation
Hard to link climate to the contractExposure in reais
Scattered evidenceRanking of critical contracts
Climate risk handled separately from the financial decisionSuggested action and traceable evidence

The differentiator is not forecasting rain. It is identifying which operations may be affected and what to do beforehand.

The product

A climate risk index by operation, asset and portfolio

Scale of 0 to 100: the higher, the greater the risk
IRC bands, ranges, illustrative examples and suggested action
BandRangeExample (illustrative)Suggested action
Very low0–25Soybean operating-cost loan on a land parcel with no relevant event forecast over the horizon.monitor
Low26–40Corn operating-cost loan with above-average rainfall forecast far from harvest.monitor
Medium41–60Water deficit forecast at the grain-filling stage, with no insurance in place.require insurance
High61–75Frost forecast during wheat flowering, on an operation with collateral below the outstanding balance.review limit or strengthen collateral
Critical76–100Extreme rainfall forecast at harvest, on a concentrated land parcel and a contract with a renegotiation history.provision or block
View examples
Very low
Soybean operating-cost loan on a land parcel with no relevant event forecast over the horizon.
Low
Corn operating-cost loan with above-average rainfall forecast far from harvest.
Medium
Water deficit forecast at the grain-filling stage, with no insurance in place.
High
Frost forecast during wheat flowering, on an operation with collateral below the outstanding balance.
Critical
Extreme rainfall forecast at harvest, on a concentrated land parcel and a contract with a renegotiation history.

Illustrative examples The suggested action considers the index, the exposure and the terms of each contract.

Forecast horizon by land parcel
7 to 90 days
Financial exposure in reais
R$ exposed
Monitor, require insurance, review limit, strengthen collateral, provision or block
1 action

Risk + value + action, on the same line.

Methodology

IRC = Climate + ESG + Operational

Climate
Rain, water deficit, frost, extreme temperature and wind by coordinate, weighted by crop stage, in windows of 7 to 90 days.
ESG
The operator's ESGreen Score by CNPJ or CPF, built from 70+ auditable, traceable sources.
Operational
Type, collateral, coverage and history of the operation and of the account holder or member.

Probabilistic ensemble forecast, updated daily, recalculated every run, ~5 km resolution

The weights between the pillars and how they are combined are described in the methodology note.

Read the IRC methodology

Real-world proof

Already running on a real portfolio

land parcels monitored
1.023
contracts analyzed
414
cities in PR, SC and RS
160

Rural credit portfolio of a credit cooperative in Southern Brazil.

Illustrative dataRun of 7/2, 06:00

Forecast minimum temperature in Caxias do Sul

−1.6 °C on 7/14
  • Forecast median
  • Likely range (estimated)
  • Observed before the run
Illustrative example of a probabilistic ensemble forecast. The hatched range is estimated and widens as the horizon advances; the −1.6 °C frost on July 14 appears 12 days after the run.
View the forecast table
Minimum temperature in Caxias do Sul: median, likely range and observed
DateMedianLikely rangeObserved
6/28——11.2 °C
6/29——10.4 °C
6/30——12.0 °C
7/1——10.8 °C
7/29.6 °C8.8 to 10.4 °C9.6 °C
7/39.0 °C8.0 to 10.0 °C—
7/48.2 °C6.9 to 9.5 °C—
7/57.4 °C5.9 to 8.9 °C—
7/68.0 °C6.2 to 9.8 °C—
7/77.0 °C5.0 to 9.0 °C—
7/86.0 °C3.8 to 8.2 °C—
7/95.2 °C2.7 to 7.7 °C—
7/104.0 °C1.3 to 6.7 °C—
7/113.0 °C0.0 to 6.0 °C—
7/121.8 °C−1.4 to 5.0 °C—
7/130.2 °C−3.2 to 3.6 °C—
7/14−1.6 °C−5.3 to 2.1 °C—
7/15−0.4 °C−4.3 to 3.5 °C—
7/161.4 °C−2.8 to 5.6 °C—
7/173.4 °C−1.0 to 7.8 °C—
7/185.0 °C0.4 to 9.6 °C—

Alert issued

  1. D-12

    A −1.6 °C frost forecast for July 14 in Caxias do Sul, identified 12 days in advance.

  2. D

    , forecast date of the event

Up to 18 days in advance

In a study of events in Rio Grande do Sul between April and May 2026, with ten companies from the South and Southeast, ESGreen's forecast model, the basis of the IRC-ESGreen, flagged extreme events up to 18 days in advance. The April 20, 2026 run indicated two waves of instability over the state, confirmed on May 1, 2026, with 324 mm in seven hours in Rosário do Sul.

Source: Economia SC, May 15, 2026.

94,3%

of the analyzed portfolio showed some level of exposure to extreme climate events in the previous two years, in a study with more than 1,000 areas and properties in the South Region.

Launched at FEBRABAN TECH 2026, August 24–26, 2026, in São Paulo.

Lead time in specific cases does not guarantee accuracy in other events. The comparison requires a methodological basis, a sample and statistical evidence for the analyzed subset.

Financial scenarios

Three scenarios in reais before the committee decides

Illustrative data
Portfolio climate exposure, by scenario
  1. FavorableR$ 1,88 mi
  2. Base reference scenarioR$ 2,36 mi
  3. SevereR$ 3,06 mi

Portfolio climate exposure over the analyzed horizon (example).

Bar chart with three portfolio climate exposure scenarios: favorable, R$1.88 million; base, R$2.36 million; severe, R$3.06 million.

The discussion is no longer only about climate. It becomes about exposure, limits, coverage and provisions.

Reading levels

From the portfolio to the land parcel, in the same solution

  1. 01 Portfolio

    Thermometer, risk × impact matrix and concentration by state and crop.

  2. 02 Ranking

    The most critical contracts first, with the suggested action alongside.

  3. 03 360° member or client

    Risk timeline, index breakdown and spraying window.

  4. 04 Report

    One document per operation, ready to attach to the credit file and to reporting.

Illustrative data

The board sees the portfolio. The manager sees the contract. The regulator sees the evidence.

Delivery and integration

Delivery formats, API and integration

See Data & API

  • Assessment report per operationReady to attach to the credit file.
  • Operational dashboardRanking, filters and a 360° view of the member or client.
  • Executive dashboardPortfolio gauge, map and scenarios.
  • AlertsBy forecast event and affected operation.
  • APIIRC lookup in the origination flow.
  • Regulatory reportingEvidence for the Central Bank, SUSEP, audit and IFRS S2.

Regulation

The challenge isn't knowing the rule.

It's turning regulatory requirements into opportunities and portfolio management, with evidence and an audit trail.

See the regulatory map

  • BCB 586 and BCB IN 772 GRSAC

    The new GRSAC rules have already been published and bring quantitative tables to the report, in stages: S1 and S2 disclose first, with data from a reference date before the disclosure. In other words, the exposure that will be published is already in today's portfolio. The public consultation that gave rise to the rule (CP 127) provided for exposure to drought and heavy rainfall by region. The IRC-ESGreen organizes this exposure by land parcel, contract and portfolio.

    BCB 586 on the regulatory map

  • CMN 5.185 Sustainability reporting

    Report of sustainability-related financial information (CBPS 01 and 02, equivalent to IFRS S1 and S2) for financial institutions, with reasonable assurance by an independent auditor. It already applies to listed institutions and to the lead entities of conglomerates in segments S1 and S2, with S3 next. The IRC-ESGreen supports this reporting with a physical-risk evidence trail prepared for assurance.

    CMN 5,185 on the regulatory map

  • CMN 5.268 Rural credit

    CMN Resolution 5,268/2025 brought to section 9 of the MCR (Rural Credit Manual) the check for vegetation clearing using PRODES/INPE and remote-sensing monitoring of contracts above 300 ha, "documented, auditable and assessable by the Central Bank". The IRC-ESGreen adds climate risk by land parcel, with the source, date and version of each run.

    CMN 5,268 on the regulatory map

  • IFRS S2 Climate disclosures

    Climate-related disclosures, with physical risk, scenario analysis and financial effects. Mandatory for financial institutions under CMN Resolution 5,185 and voluntary for listed companies (CVM 193/244). The IRC-ESGreen's three scenarios in reais feed this analysis.

    IFRS S2 on the regulatory map

  • CNSP 485 Rural insurance

    In force for rural insurance: no coverage for a property without an active CAR (Rural Environmental Registry), under an embargo for illegal deforestation or with the producer on the slave labor list. The IRC-ESGreen's ESG pillar and the ESGreen Score support these checks by CPF, CNPJ and property.

    CNSP 485 on the regulatory map

  • CMN 4.945 PRSAC

    Requires institutions of the National Financial System, cooperatives included, to have a Social, Environmental and Climate Responsibility Policy. The IRC-ESGreen takes the policy down to the operation level, with evidence of climate risk by contract.

    CMN 4,945 on the regulatory map

ZARC and IRC-ESGreen: two readings of the same portfolio

Official zoning (ZARC) compared with the IRC-ESGreen
Official zoning (ZARC)IRC-ESGreen
Static, by municipality and by crop season.Dynamic, per land parcel, recalculated with every run.

Cross-referencing with a dynamic analysis can reveal exposures that aggregate zoning does not show at the operation level. The comparison requires a methodological basis, a sample and statistical evidence for the subset analyzed.

Who it is for

Portfolio protection, member support and new business

Who uses it, in each area

Credit
Grants credit considering the risk of the current crop season and can adjust limits, collateral or coverage.
Risk and finance
Sees climate concentration and takes financial scenarios to the committee.
Agribusiness and members
Enables preventive contact, guidance and follow-up of the most exposed operations.
New business
Helps identify opportunities for insurance, assistance, preventive renegotiation and sustainable credit lines.

The IRC-ESGreen turns climate risk into an operational, regulatory and commercial advantage.

Technology

Technology supports it. The value is in the financial decision.

IRC-ESGreen in 70 seconds

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Watch on YouTube (opens in a new tab)

The IRC-ESGreen combines probabilistic ensemble climate forecasting with ESGreen's proprietary ESG base and the data of each operation. The forecast models come from the NVIDIA Earth-2 ecosystem, and the IRC-ESGreen was trained on NVIDIA infrastructure.

NVIDIA Inception Program
Member of NVIDIA Inception
  • Proprietary ESG base
  • Traceable public sources
  • Platform applied to credit, risk and compliance
  • Recurring monitoring of operations

Data infrastructure the financial market already uses: 60+ financial institutions use ESGreen technology. Data as of Sep 2026.

The interactive demo uses a fictitious portfolio. The numbers in the Real-world proof section come from a real portfolio, shown without identifying the client.

Request the IRC methodology note The methodology note is sent by email after you fill in the form.

Frequently asked questions about the IRC-ESGreen

Short answers to the most common questions.

Still have questions? Talk to an expert

What is the IRC-ESGreen?

It is ESGreen's Climate Risk Index: a scale from 0 to 100 that measures physical climate risk by land parcel, contract and portfolio, converts the exposure into reais and indicates an action for each operation. The higher the index, the greater the risk.

How is the index calculated?

IRC = Climate + ESG + Operational. The Climate pillar considers rainfall, water deficit, frost, extreme temperature and wind by coordinate, weighted by crop stage. The ESG pillar uses the operator's ESGreen Score, by CNPJ or CPF, from 70+ auditable sources. The Operational pillar considers the loan type, collateral, coverage and history of the operation and of the member or account holder.

What is the forecast horizon?

From 7 to 90 days, with readings at 7, 15, 30, 60 and 90 days, plus the historical baseline.

How often is the index updated?

Climate data is updated daily, and the index is recalculated every run. Each run is dated and uses a registered version of the methodology.

What do the index bands mean?

0 to 25, Very low; 26 to 40, Low; 41 to 60, Medium; 61 to 75, High; 76 to 100, Critical. The IRC-ESGreen scale runs in the opposite direction to the ESGreen Score, in which the higher the score, the lower the risk.

What is the difference between the IRC-ESGreen and ZARC?

ZARC is the official zoning, static, by municipality and by crop season. The IRC-ESGreen is dynamic, by land parcel, and recalculated every run. The two readings complement each other, and comparing them requires a methodological basis, a sample and statistical evidence for the analyzed subset.

Where has the IRC-ESGreen already been applied?

In a real rural credit portfolio of a credit cooperative in Southern Brazil: 1,023 land parcels monitored, 414 contracts analyzed and 160 cities in Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul.

How does the index fit into the credit pipeline?

Through the API, in the origination flow; through a report per operation, ready to attach to the credit file; through alerts by forecast event and affected operation; and through the operational and executive dashboards.

Does the demo on this page use client data?

No. The demo uses 40 fictitious land parcels and contracts, created only to illustrate how the index works.

Is the IRC-ESGreen a credit recommendation?

No. The index is an assessment based on public and regulatory data and on proprietary models. The suggested action is an input, and the credit decision remains with the institution itself.

Further reading on climate risk

See Research on climate risk

The advantage in the coming years will be anticipating climate risk before it turns into a loss.

Schedule 30 minutes. We show the IRC-ESGreen applied to a portfolio or a sample of operations from your institution.

  • Demo with cases from your segment
  • Pre-assessment of CNPJs in your base
  • Climate exposure readout for operations and assets

Or write to contato@esgreen.com.br

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